The Arab Spring: Societal and institutional insights for the South African context

Abstract

This article evaluates the possibility of a non-democratic revolutionaryregime change in South Africa, based on the experiences of the ArabSpring which began in 2010. The paper reconstructs the Arab Springand discusses its socio-political causes and driving forces. It thenevaluates the authoritarian regimes of the Arab region and identifieskey institutional regime characteristics that define them. The politicalinstability, which emerged from the interaction between social forcesand authoritarian political institutions, is interpreted through the lensof revolutionary regime change. Finally, the theoretical and empiricalinsights gained from this analysis are applied to the South Africancontext, where it is argued that even though the political environment ischaracterised by decay and patterns of dysfunction similar to those inthe Arab region, revolutionary regime change is unlikely in this context.