Assessment of arable farmers’ understanding of scientific weather forecasts in Ngamiland East, Botswana

Abstract

Scientific weather forecasts provide early warning information that is essential for arable farmers to adapt to climate variability and change. However, the use of forecasts by farmers is limited by their lack of understanding of forecasts. This study assesses arable farmers’ understanding of the various aspects of seasonal weather forecasts in Ngamiland East, Botswana, to identify those aspects which they do not understand. The study also suggests improvements that can be made on the forecasts to make it easier for farmers to understand them and be able to use them for their benefit. It also assesses arable farmers’ strategies of adaptation to climate variability and change. The study utilised face to face interviews to collect qualitative data using semi-structured questionnaires. From the results, 28% of the farmers reported that they did not use the forecasts in their decisions making about planting, mainly because they did not understand them. The challenge for nearly a quarter (22.5%) of those who did not use the forecasts was the spatial scale aspect of the forecasts. More than one third of the farmers (35%) suggested that to improve the forecasts, the forecasts should be downscaled to their local area scale. Based on these findings, it is essential to improve the forecasts to make them easier to understand so that even farmers with low educational levels can also use them.