Electoral History and Turnover Tradition in Botswana’s Outlier Constituency of Kgatleng West

Abstract

Botswana is regarded as Africa’s oldest surviving multiparty democracy, yet constituency-based studies have been rare until 2024. This paper examines Kgatleng West, one of three constituencies in Kgatleng District, which is notable for its turnover of parliamentary representatives from various parties since the first elections in 1965. The victory of the opposition Botswana Congress Party in Kgatleng West in 2024 means that the constituency has been represented by five different parties; a rare victory by a woman candidate adds a gender dimension. While tribal royalty has influenced voter choice, Bakgatla are traditionally independent-minded. Kgosikgolo Kgafela II, who was enthroned in 2008, even called for Kgatleng’s independence. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which ruled from 1966 to 2024, won only four constituencies in 2024, including Kgatleng East. Wiseman, in his study in Kgatleng in 1978, framed its politics around conflicts and alliances involving tribal leader Kgosikgolo Linchwe II, the BDP, and the opposition Botswana Peoples Party. This paper analyses Kgatleng voters’ fickleness, by examining the dynamics of conflict and shifting alliances among the BDP, Bakgatla royalty, and opposition parties across all 13 election cycles up to 2024. The paper provides background on party politics and elections in Kgatleng, with a focus on Kgatleng West’s candidate selection, campaign strategies, and challenges for the 2024 elections, and an analysis of the election results for parliamentary and council candidates. The paper concludes that, despite being deeply rooted in the country’s electoral culture, traditional campaigning strategies like motorcades, political rallies, distribution of free party-apparel, and town hall debates do not guarantee electoral success for the most visible or aggressive party. Furthermore, the dynamics of conflict and shifting alliances are such that the imposition of candidates by the national party hierarchy, without consideration of local dynamics, can be counterproductive, as seen in Kgatleng East and Kgatleng West for the Umbrella for Democratic Change.