Ke Nako? The Modest Success of the Botswana Patriotic Front in the (Former) Central District of Botswana, 2019–2024

Abstract

One factor in the collapse of support for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was the challenge posed by the breakaway Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) in the former Central District. The BPF had been formed by the kgosikgolo of the Bamangwato and the former president of Botswana, Ian Khama, in 2019, just prior to that year’s elections. This article reviews the performance of the BPF from its formation in 2019 through to the 2024 elections. In the 2019 elections, the newly formed BPF had performed strongly in the Khama heartland of Serowe, but, in most other Central District constituencies, Khama and the BPF supported candidates from other opposition parties against the BDP. In the 2024 election, the BPF ran more and generally stronger candidates but made only limited progress by winning only five parliamentary seats (two more than in 2019) and forty district council seats (23 more than in 2019). The BFP’s share of the vote across the (from 2022, former) Central District was smaller than those of the Umbrella for Democratic Change, the BDP and the Botswana Congress Party. The BPF relied heavily on Khama’s legitimacy and aggressive campaigning. The party lacked strong organisation on the ground. The BPF’s decision to compete against other opposition parties might have weakened the BDP, but it limited the BPF’s own gains. In many constituencies, voters who were unhappy with the BDP supported the other opposition parties rather than the BPF.