Generational Changes in Political Attitudes in Botswana, 1999–2024

Abstract

Successive elections have different outcomes because individual voters themselves change their preferences (often because of shifts in what parties and candidates have to offer) and the electorate changes as older voters die and adolescents reach voting age (i.e. ‘generational replacement’). This paper examines the contributions to the decline in support for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) made by changing preferences and the changing electorate, using survey data for the twenty-five years from 1999 to 2024. In some respects, the preferences and attitudes of successive generations of voters have changed in very similar ways, with more and more negative assessments of the performance of the BDP and its leadership. In other respects, however, there are clear generational differences rooted in their formative socialisation in different periods: The generation of Batswana born before Independence were (and remain) significantly more attached to the BDP than the following generations. These are differences between generations, not simply by age or stage in the life cycle. Evidence from focus groups suggests that generational differences are in part due to urbanisation: Voters who migrated to towns or who grew up in towns were exposed to different influences than voters who remained in the villages of rural Botswana were. Historical loyalties rooted in early political socialisation are important, but the loyalties of many urban and some rural voters have been transformed by more contemporary experiences and assessments.